Our specialist longevity team have an unrivalled depth of knowledge and experience in analysing and modelling mortality and longevity risk which underpins the advice we provide to the holders, buyers and sellers of longevity risk.

We always look to deliver clear and pragmatic advice based on robust analysis commensurate with the end-purpose and the strengths and limitations of the available data.

For advice on best estimates of current mortality we combine the results of experience analysis with estimates derived from consideration of the socio-economic, geographic and lifestyle profiling of the specific portfolio, whilst also taking account of other relevant studies and wider populations.

We also have considerable knowledge and experience in analysing past mortality change and modelling future mortality improvements using formal mathematical models and more subjective approaches, informed by expert opinion.

Much of our work is project-based and we undertake assignments for insurance companies, reinsurance companies, investment banks, international governmental organisations and pension schemes.

Ongoing clients include the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) and the Life and Longevity Markets Association (LLMA).  The CMI has been a major client for over 20 years and our role includes data collection and analyses for the CMI life office and SAPS investigations and supporting the development of the CMI Mortality Projections Model.

We also act as a centre of excellence for actuarial teams in Barnett Waddingham, helping them to provide expert advice to their clients.

Recent projects have included:

  • Cause of death modelling – we reviewed the model used by a major insurer to set both best-estimate and ICA stress assumptions.
  • Enhanced Annuities – we examined portfolio experience and medical studies to advise an insurance company on appropriate mortality assumptions by type of impairment (including smoking).
  • Old age mortality – we have advised several insurance companies on mortality assumptions at ages 90+, where there is limited reliable data.
  • Bespoke mortality tables – we constructed tables appropriate to a large pension scheme with highly-unusual mortality experience.
  • Stochastic models and Solvency II - we helped a major insurer to review existing stochastic longevity models and to select and adapt one model for use in calculating its capital requirements.

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For more information about the independent, expert services we provide in this area, speak to our team today.

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