The CMI Model is calibrated to data for the general population but is typically applied to pensioner or annuitant portfolios. These have different mortality rates and may experience quite different mortality improvements.
In this Spotlight we analyse recent mortality improvements by cohort, including by cause of death, and assess the implications for pension and annuity portfolios.
Dementia is already the second most common cause of death group in England & Wales. Mortality rates from dementia are increasing, unlike other major causes, so it is likely to be the leading cause of death before the end of this decade.
Considering mortality improvements by cause of death can provide insight into current and future trends, such as the recent dominance of circulatory disease as a driver of improvements.
Our analysis of annual mortality improvements for pensioners shows correlation between years and alternate years of high and low mortality improvements.
We analyse the sensitivity of pensioner and annuitant liability values to mortality rates and mortality improvements at different ages to assess which ages matter most.