Longevity is a topic of significant importance to defined benefit pension schemes and their actuaries. What can we learn from the latest research, what does it all mean for LGPS Funds - and why on earth does it have anything to do with shopping for shoes?
The slowing of mortality improvements in the UK in recent years has been widely discussed. In this Spotlight we compare recent mortality in the UK to a large number of European countries.
As part of the 31 March 2016 valuation process, 15 of the English Funds participating in the Local Government Pension Scheme (LGPS) advised by Barnett Waddingham agreed to take part in a project to comprehensively review their mortality assumptions.
The CMI Model is calibrated to data for the general population but is typically applied to pensioner or annuitant portfolios. These have different mortality rates and may experience quite different mortality improvements.
Projecting mortality trends is inherently uncertain and limited data makes this even more challenging. Can analysis of past trends in international data help us to better predict future trends in UK mortality rates?
In this Spotlight we analyse recent mortality improvements by cohort, including by cause of death, and assess the implications for pension and annuity portfolios.
Dementia is already the second most common cause of death group in England & Wales. Mortality rates from dementia are increasing, unlike other major causes, so it is likely to be the leading cause of death before the end of this decade.
Considering mortality improvements by cause of death can provide insight into current and future trends, such as the recent dominance of circulatory disease as a driver of improvements.
The adverse impact of smoking on life expectancy has been widely-recognised for many years. Our analysis suggests that around 20% of the observed improvements in UK mortality in recent decades can be attributed to reductions in smoking.
After many years of rapid mortality improvements in the UK population, 2012 and 2013 saw significantly lower gains. Here we investigate how recent improvements varied by cause of death.